By: Joy Odor/Abuja
Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Oyo, Ogun, Bauchi, Delta, Rivers and Plateau States have been analyzed by the Election Analysis Centre (EAC) of Centre of Democracy and Development (CDD) as key states that will play a significant role in shaping who becomes Nigeria’s next president.
The Members of the EAC gave the analysis while briefing newsmen in Abuja on the feedback received from its field observers on the conclusion of political campaigns, citizen’s expectations for the 2019 election and pending issues around the States its observers were deployed.
According to them, the battleground states where chosen because they have historically turned out high rates of voters and they currently have large numbers of registered voters for this year’s elections.
“To decide which state fits into the pool for consideration, the analysts deployed factors like the total number of registered voters, voter turnout in the last general elections in 2015, established voting patterns and the current political situation in the state relying on factors such as internal crisis, unresolved grievances and show of power between political heavyweights in the state.
“Meanwhile, the analysts also pointed out that there are few hidden factors that may likely influence the outcome of the presidential elections.
“They said areas experiencing insecurity might witness low voter turnout and this might affect candidates who have such areas as their strongholds.
They cautioned that even though the southeast has the least number of registered voters, the combined votes of people from the Igbo ethnic group combined could make up that of a few states together since Igbos are dispersed across several states in the country.
“Finally, they argued that other candidates like Prof. Kingsley Moghalu of the Young People’s Party (YPP) and Omoyele Sowere of the African Action Congress (AAC) might influence the outcome of the elections since they would certainly secure some votes at the expense of either Atiku or Buhari” They noted.