By Joy Odor Abuja
Nigeria’s economic outlook has taken a sharp turn and this time, the optimism is coming from a place that once underestimated it.
The Tinubu Media Support Group (TMSG) says the World Bank’s latest 4.4 per cent growth projection for Nigeria is not only more realistic than its earlier forecasts, but also a quiet admission that the global lender misjudged the capacity of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration to drive economic recovery.
In a statement jointly signed by its Chairman, Emeka Nwankpa, and Secretary, Dapo Okubanjo, the group argued that the World Bank’s revised outlook for 2026 and 2027 represents a subtle but significant vote of confidence in the administration’s reform agenda after two years of conservative projections that failed to capture Nigeria’s economic resilience.
The group recalled that the World Bank had projected a 3.7 per cent growth rate for 2025, only for the economy to outperform that estimate by recording 4.2 per cent growth, a divergence that forced a rethink.
“After seeing the Nigerian economy grow by 4.2 per cent in 2025, higher than its own 3.7 per cent projection, it was gratifying that the World Bank opted against underestimating the Tinubu administration again,” the group said.
Six months later, the Bank upgraded its earlier projections of 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4 per cent for both years, a move TMSG described as overdue but welcome.
The group traced the shift in outlook to a long-running debate over Nigeria’s economic structure.
When both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank projected modest growth of 3 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively for 2025, citing a global oil slump, Nigeria’s economic prospects were already being redefined.
At the time, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) countered that Nigeria would outperform those projections because it was no longer overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenues.
According to TMSG, events proved that argument correct.
“That was exactly what happened,” the statement noted, adding that the World Bank’s decision to raise its growth forecasts by 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points for 2026 and 2027 effectively validated IMPI’s position.
Significantly, this is the first time in two years that the World Bank has projected over 4 per cent growth for Nigeria without anchoring its optimism on oil.
Instead, the Bank attributed the outlook to continued expansion in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural output, and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activity.
The Bank also credited Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms for the stronger-than-expected 2025 performance, noting that new tax laws and prudent monetary policy are expected to further strengthen growth in the medium term.
For TMSG, that assessment amounts to a strong endorsement of President Tinubu’s policy direction.
“This is a major validation of the effectiveness of President Tinubu’s economic reforms,” the group said, pointing out that the World Bank now expects Nigeria to record its fastest economic growth in a decade.
But the group went a step further, predicting that the administration may yet outperform even the revised forecasts just as it has done in the last two years.
“We dare say that the Tinubu administration would again do better than the World Bank projections,” the statement said.
TMSG concluded by urging Nigerians to remain patient and maintain confidence in the government’s economic strategy, insisting that the reform trajectory, though demanding, is steadily reshaping the foundations of growth for long-term national benefit.
In a global climate marked by uncertainty and cautious forecasts, Nigeria’s revised outlook suggests one thing clearly: the era of being underestimated may be coming to an end.
