By Joy Odor | Reportcircle News
Inside the Senate’s Finance Committee room, Nigeria’s next budget is being stripped bare assumption by assumption, number by number under an unforgiving spotlight.
This time, lawmakers say, optimism will not pass for arithmetic, and projections will no longer be approved on faith.
The message from the National Assembly was blunt: Nigeria cannot keep running an economy on recycled assumptions, rolled-over projects and multiple budgets in a single fiscal year.
That warning dominated a tense, data-heavy engagement between the Senate Committee on Finance, chaired by Senator Sani Musa (Niger East), and the country’s top economic managers over the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), the blueprint that will shape the 2026 Appropriation Act.
The mood shifted when the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, laid out the numbers behind the 2025 budget.
Out of a projected ₦40 trillion revenue target for 2025, only ₦10 trillion has been realised so far.
The implication was stark: a ₦30 trillion revenue hole.
“About 70 per cent of capital projects captured in the 2025 budget are being rolled over to 2026,” Edun told senators, confirming what many already feared that Nigeria is effectively running overlapping budgets in one fiscal year.
While Edun noted that the 2024 budget was fully funded, with the entire ₦26 trillion revenue target realised and its capital component implemented, the collapse in 2025 revenue exposed deep structural weaknesses.
The disclosure triggered a sharp response from lawmakers across party and regional lines.
Senator Danjuma Goje (Gombe Central) called the practice of multiple budget implementation “unacceptable,” insisting it must end with the current fiscal year.
“Nigerians cannot continue like this,” he warned. “From 2026, budget implementation must be normalised.”
Senator Olalere Oyewumi (Osun West) went further, urging the executive to stop presenting overly ambitious budgets that collapse under implementation.
“Budgets are not dictated by the governed,” he said. “Government must bring proposals that are realistic and achievable, not numbers that end up being rolled over year after year.”
Senator Victor Umeh (Anambra Central) and Senator Ireti Kingibe (FCT) zeroed in on another fault line why approved borrowings were not deployed to plug revenue gaps, despite prior authorisation by the Senate and the National Assembly.
Responding, Senator Sani Musa sought to calm frayed nerves while drawing a clear line in the sand.
He assured Nigerians that budget normalisation will begin from 2026, adding that the committee would no longer tolerate structural slippages masked by projections.
To prevent further damage, Musa announced the formation of a three-man ad hoc committee to work directly with the Minister of Finance and the Accountant-General of the Federation, ensuring that local contractors are paid for 2024 projects before the budget expires on December 31.
Revenue mobilisation quickly became the next battleground.
The Committee rejected the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) proposal of ₦31 trillion revenue for 2026.
Instead, Senator Musa issued a direct charge to FIRS Chairman, Zacch Adedeji: raise the target to ₦35 trillion.
Adedeji revealed that FIRS generated ₦20.2 trillion in 2024 and ₦25.2 trillion in 2025, but warned that the gains were being eroded by the instability created when multiple budgets run concurrently within a single fiscal year.
In short: even strong revenue performance is being undermined by fiscal disorder.
As Senators sharpened their knives, the architects of the 2026 framework stepped forward.
The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, alongside the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, defended the key assumptions behind the proposed ₦54.4 trillion 2026 budget.
Those parameters include:
Oil production: 1.84 million barrels per day
Oil price benchmark: $64.85 per barrel
Exchange rate: ₦1,512 to the US dollar
But Lawmakers made it clear: these figures will not pass unless they align with current production realities, FX market behaviour, inflation trends and global oil dynamics.
Behind the scenes, Senators describe the process as a forensic stress test rather than a routine budget review.
Oil output, non-oil revenue, exchange rate assumptions, inflation trajectory and GDP growth forecasts are all being interrogated line by line, against real performance data from ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) and government-owned enterprises (GOEs).
“If the numbers don’t match reality, they won’t pass,” a ranking committee member said. “This budget must survive contact with reality.”
The scrutiny is unfolding amid shrinking fiscal space and rising global uncertainty.
One pressure point already on the table is child immunisation funding, previously supported by USAID. With US funding now withdrawn, Sen Musa informed that the Senate is searching for domestic financing options, another reminder that global politics is reshaping Nigeria’s budget choices.
To widen the revenue net, Lawmakers are also examining structural options, including a proposed sugar-related bill, aimed at boosting non-oil revenues and reducing dependence on volatile crude oil receipts.
When the final reports return to the Chamber, Lawmakers said Nigerians should expect a different kind of budget, one built on verifiable data, credible projections and enforceable discipline, not hopeful estimates.
In an economy grappling with inflation, currency volatility and growth constraints, the stakes could not be higher.
This time, Senators insist, the budget must do more than pass.
It must perform.
