Our Correspondent Abuja
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has delivered a sweeping defence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic direction, declaring that Nigeria’s ongoing fiscal and monetary reset is rooted in “progressive ideology” and has begun dismantling what it describes as a long-standing oligarchic stranglehold on the nation’s economy.
In a strongly worded Policy Statement O34, IMPI argued that Tinubu’s reform strategy mirrors the spirit of early 20th-century American progressivism invoking parallels with former U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt, whose “Square Deal” confronted corporate excess and economic inequality during America’s Gilded Age.
According to IMPI Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, Nigeria before May 2023 was trapped in a patronage-driven system dominated by entrenched interests, particularly in the oil and foreign exchange sectors.
The group painted a grim picture of the pre-reform era: fuel subsidies described as a “feeding bottle” for a privileged few; multiple exchange rate windows exploited by arbitrage players; and a debt service burden swallowing nearly 97 per cent of government revenue at the point Tinubu assumed office.
Export earnings, IMPI noted, plunged from a $93.89 billion peak in 2011 to $31.40 billion in 2020, a 66.56 per cent collapse with devastating implications for federally shared revenue.
But the narrative, the group insists, has shifted.
IMPI pointed to a dramatic surge in Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements in 2025, with over ₦33.27 trillion shared in the first eleven months, a 30 per cent jump from 2024.
A record ₦3.64 trillion was distributed in September 2025 alone, bolstering state finances and subnational development.
The think tank attributed the rebound to subsidy removal and exchange rate unification reforms it described as politically risky but ideologically grounded.
According to IMPI, inflation has dropped sharply from 34.6 per cent in November 2024 to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, marking sustained disinflation over nine months.
The once-yawning gap between official and parallel exchange rates has narrowed from 60 per cent to roughly 2 per cent, with the naira trading around ₦1,349.24/$ at the official window late February.
The local currency, IMPI claimed, is now ranked the world’s second-best performing currency in 2026, gaining over 7 per cent against the dollar.
The Nigerian equities market has also staged a remarkable rally.
Stocks have delivered a 31 per cent dollar return in 2026, outperforming broader emerging and frontier market indices.
Market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange now stands near $84 billion about 58 per cent higher than pre-devaluation levels.
Foreign investor participation has hit a 19-year high, with non-Nigerian equity transactions tripling to ₦2.65 trillion in 2025.
Nigeria’s total exports for the first nine months of 2025 rose to $44.06 billion, up from $40.29 billion in the same period of 2024, signaling renewed external sector strength.
Food inflation, long a stubborn pressure point, eased to 8.89 per cent in January 2026, its lowest level in over 14 years and the first single-digit reading since 2015.
Access to foreign exchange for business travel soared by 366 per cent to $672.27 million in the first nine months of 2025, a development IMPI interpreted as evidence of renewed investor confidence and FX stability.
IMPI described the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 as a central pillar of Tinubu’s progressive template.
Land, buildings and rent are now exempt from VAT. Individuals can claim rent relief of up to ₦500,000, capped at 20 per cent of annual rent.
Small companies enjoy zero per cent Companies Income Tax and VAT exemptions, while capital gains on residential property disposals have been removed.
Interest income from federal and state government bonds, as well as Sukuk, is now tax-exempt, alongside capital gains on such securities.
“These measures directly expand disposable income, stimulate enterprise and redistribute opportunity,” IMPI stated.
The group also highlighted the Federal Government’s rapprochement with university lecturers, noting the rollout of the tax-free Consolidated Academic Tools Allowance (CATA) as part of the 2025 agreement with academic unions.
Under the new structure, university academics receive their base CONUASS salary plus a separate tax-exempt CATA allowance, a move IMPI says strengthens research and intellectual productivity.
IMPI concluded that Tinubu’s reforms reflect economic progressivism, an ideological framework that uses fiscal policy, redistributive taxation and institutional reform to confront inequality and unlock growth.
The group argued that multiplier effects from increased exports, higher public spending and tax exemptions are now feeding into broader prosperity cycles.
In its final submission, IMPI declared that the administration has “taken Nigeria out of the woods,” setting the stage for exponential GDP growth and improved per capita income.
Whether critics agree or not, IMPI’s verdict is emphatic: ideology, not improvisation, is steering Nigeria’s economic turnaround.
